Race Time Predictor
Predict your trail race finish, honestly.
Upload the course GPX and enter a recent effort. This uses the Minetti cost-of-running model to grade-adjust your pace to the target course's actual vert - not a flat-road estimate.
1. Course GPX
2. A recent hard effort
A recent race or hard long run. The closer in distance to your target, the better the projection.
Projected finish
Upload a course GPX and enter a recent effort to see your projection.
How to read the number
The projection assumes you'll run your current flat-equivalent fitness across the whole target course. That's rarely true on anything past 3 hours. Fatigue, fueling, and heat all bend the line.
For races longer than ~2× your recent effort, add 5–15% to the projection. For your first ultra, add 15–25% and plan the pacing around aid stations, not splits.
Want a projection that accounts for your training block, your heat tolerance, and the specific race? Work with me 1:1.